Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation for fatigue damage progression models in composites

A Bayesian approach is presented for selecting the most probable model class among a set of damage mechanics models for fatigue damage progression in composites. Candidate models, that are first parameterized through a Global Sensitivity Analysis, are ranked based on estimated probabilities that measure the extent of agreement of their predictions with observed data. A case study is presented using multi-scale fatigue damage data from a cross-ply carbon–epoxy laminate. The results show that, for this case, the most probable model class among the competing candidates is the one that involves the simplest damage mechanics. The principle of Ockham's razor seems to hold true for the composite materials investigated here since the data-fit of more complex models is penalized, as they extract more information from the data

A Bayesian assessment of an approximate model for unconfined water flow in sloping layered porous media

The prediction of water table height in unconfined layered porous media is a difficult modelling problem that typically requires numerical simulation. This paper proposes an analytical model to approximate the exact solution based on a steady-state Dupuit–Forchheimer analysis. The key contribution in relation to a similar model in the literature relies in the ability of the proposed model to consider more than two layers with different thicknesses and slopes, so that the existing model becomes a special case of the proposed model herein. In addition, a model assessment methodology based on the Bayesian inverse problem is proposed to efficiently identify the values of the physical parameters for which the proposed model is accurate when compared against a reference model given by MODFLOW-NWT, the open-source finite-difference code by the U.S. Geological Survey. Based on numerical results for a representative case study, the ratio of vertical recharge rate to hydraulic conductivity emerges as a key parameter in terms of model accuracy so that, when appropriately bounded, both the proposed model and MODFLOW-NWT provide almost identical results

Plausible Petri nets as self-adaptive expert systems: A tool for infrastructure asset monitoring

This article provides a computational framework to model self-adaptive expert systems using the Petri net (PN) formalism. Self-adaptive expert systems are understood here as expert systems with the ability to autonomously learn from external inputs, like monitoring data. To this end, the Bayesian learning principles are investigated and also combined with the Plausible PNs (PPNs) methodology. PPNs are a variant within the PN paradigm, which are efficient to jointly consider the dynamics of discrete events, like maintenance actions, together with multiple sources of uncertain information about a state variable. The manuscript shows the mathematical conditions and computational procedure where the Bayesian updating becomes a particular case of a more general basic operation within the PPN execution semantics, which enables the uncertain knowledge being updated from monitoring data. The approach is general, but here it is demonstrated in a novel computational model acting as expert system for railway track inspection management taken as a case study using published data from a laboratory simulation of train loading on ballast. The results reveal selfadaptability and uncertainty management as key enabling aspects to optimize inspection actions in railway track, only being adaptively and autonomously triggered based on the actual learnt state of track and other contextual issues, like resource availability, as opposed to scheduled periodic maintenance activities.Lloyd'sRegister Foundation, Grant/Award Number: RB4539; Engineering and Physical SciencesResearch Council, Grant/Award Number:EP/M023028/

Robust optimal sensor configuration using the value of information

Sensing is the cornerstone of any functional structural health monitoring technology, with sensor number and placement being a key aspect for reliable monitoring. We introduce for the first time a robust methodology for optimal sensor configuration based on the value of information that accounts for (1) uncertainties from updatable and nonupdatable parameters, (2) variability of the objective function with respect to nonupdatable parameters, and (3) the spatial correlation between sensors. The optimal sensor configuration is obtained by maximizing the expected value of information, which leads to a cost-benefit analysis that entails model parameter uncertainties. The proposed methodology is demonstrated on an application of structural health monitoring in plate-like structures using ultrasonic guided waves. We show that accounting for uncertainties is critical for an accurate diagnosis of damage. Furthermore, we provide critical assessment of the role of both the effect of modeling and measurement uncertainties and the optimization algorithm on the resulting sensor placement. The results on the health monitoring of an aluminum plate indicate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed methodology in discovering optimal sensor configurations. © 2022 The Authors. Structural Control and Health Monitoring published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Updating structural FE models of cultural heritage assets based on probabilistic tools

The deterioration of Cultural Heritage assets due to the climatic change and natural hazards is a pressing issue in many countries. In this sense, the assessment of their actual structural integrity based on higher-scale structural responses is key to assess the resilience of these important assets. This paper proposes a rational methodology to integrate modal vibration data into structural FE models based on probabilistic tools. The methodology is based on solid Bayesian probabilistic principles thus allowing uncertainty quantification in the assessment. A real case study for a sixteenth century heritage building in Granada (Spain) is presented. The results show the efficiency of the proposed methodology in identifying the probability density functions of basic material parameters such as the Bulk modulus of the building stones or the modulus of soil reaction among others

Intelligent Health Indicators Based on Semi-supervised Learning Utilizing Acoustic Emission Data

Health indicators are indices that act as intermediary links between raw SHM data and prognostic models. An efficient HI should satisfy prognostic requirements such as monotonicity, trendability, and prognosability in such a way that it can be effectively used as an input in a prognostic model for remaining useful life estimation. However, discovering or designing a suitable HI for composite structures is a challenging task due to the inherent complexity of the evolution of damage events in such materials. Previous research has shown that data-driven models are efficient for accomplishing this goal. Large labeled datasets, however, are normally required, and the SHM data can only be labeled, respecting prognostic requirements, after a series of nominally identical structures are tested to failure. In this paper, a semi-supervised learning approach based on implicitly imposing prognostic criteria is adopted to design a novel HI suitable. To this end, single-stiffener composite panels were subjected to compression-compression fatigue loading and monitored using acoustic emission (AE). The AE data after signal processing and feature extraction were fused using a multi-layer LSTM neural network with criteria-based hypothetical targets to generate an intelligent HI. The results confirm the performance of the proposed scenario according to the prognostic criteria.Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.Structural Integrity & Composite

Intelligent health indicator construction for prognostics of composite structures utilizing a semi-supervised deep neural network and SHM data

A health indicator (HI) is a valuable index demonstrating the health level of an engineering system or structure, which is a direct intermediate connection between raw signals collected by structural health monitoring (SHM) methods and prognostic models for remaining useful life estimation. An appropriate HI should conform to prognostic criteria, i.e., monotonicity, trendability, and prognosability, that are commonly utilized to measure the HI's quality. However, constructing such a HI is challenging, particularly for composite structures due to their vulnerability to complex damage scenarios. Data-driven models and deep learning are powerful mathematical tools that can be employed to achieve this purpose. Yet the availability of a large dataset with labels plays a crucial role in these fields, and the data collected by SHM methods can only be labeled after the structure fails. In this respect, semi-supervised learning can incorporate unlabeled data monitored from structures that have not yet failed. In the present work, a semi-supervised deep neural network is proposed to construct HI by SHM data fusion. For the first time, the prognostic criteria are used as targets of the network rather than employing them only as a measurement tool of HI's quality. In this regard, the acoustic emission method was used to monitor composite panels during fatigue loading, and extracted features were used to construct an intelligent HI. Finally, the proposed roadmap is evaluated by the holdout method, which shows a 77.3% improvement in the HI's quality, and the leave-one-out cross-validation method, which indicates the generalized model has at least an 81.77% score on the prognostic criteria. This study demonstrates that even when the true HI labels are unknown but the qualified HI pattern (according to the prognostic criteria) can be recognized, a model can still be built that provides HIs aligning with the desired degradation behavior.Structural Integrity & Composite